The Iran and 5+1 talks firstly caused Oil Prices Drop Amid 'Excitement' Over End to Iran Sanctions couple of days ago, but later the market backed off due to slow resume of Iran's return to production. These are heated transient reactions by market observers not the steady state of world scale economy.
Traders are taking heart in projections by oil analysts that it would take Iran many months to ramp up its oil exports significantly. They believe the terms of the negotiations and years of under-investment would leave Iran coming up with no more than 500,000 bpd at the end of the year and shy of 1 million bdp by mid-2016.
Yet analysts say it would take Iran many months to fully ramp up its export capacity following any easing of sanctions. But even a modest initial increase would be enough to pull international oil prices down further as the market is already producing around 2.5 million barrels per day above demand.
"The market of Oil products as bitumen and base oils, would follow the oil market trend as always with a lag. So no rapid decrease is estimated to take place at this time." Said Emad Honarparvar, CEO of Modiran trading company to buy-bitumen.com.
Many speculators may face a maximum 2% fluctuation in oil index in coming days of political news and press releases but this would't affect the actual production amounts, he added.